Mobile musings and wireless wanderings

In Part 1, I endeavored to (i) define the various approaches towards the “write once, run everywhere” dilemma, (ii) defined a “stack” as a vehicle for understanding the evolving landscape, and (iii) provided some comments on the recent developments related to Google, Nokia, Microsoft, Adobe and Sun. It can be found here: Of Trolls and Droids: on cross-species development and the evolution of mobile tools and platforms.

In this post (part 2) I will address the evolution and who (i.e., which categories) will likely survive as this plays out.

Setting the stage …

In the last post in this series, I referenced Darcy Wentworth Thompson’s On Growth and Form as a “framing” for the current approach towards the “write once, run everywhere” dilemma (i.e., structural evolution). For consistency, I thought I’d offer another framework for this post. George-Spencer Brown in his book Laws of Form developed a notation of two-element Boolean algebra. I have a proclivity for “sign engineering” (i.e., cognitive ergonomics) and notational systems and maintain a website - logic-alphabet.net - that is dedicated to such pursuits.

Nevertheless, the primary symbol from which Spencer-Brown built his system in “Laws of Form” is the “mark”. The mark denotes the act of making a distinction, i.e., between this and everything that is not this. Making distinctions (i.e., drawing boundaries) are a cornerstone of meaning and understanding.

So as not to further digress, the following post is a set of “distinctions” and taxonomies that I have made and found useful in understanding the evolution of mobile platforms. In full disclosure, since Nellymoser provides a mobile services platform, I have included us in the taxonomies.

A historical proxy - platform evolution

The following is a brief history of the Internet viewed through the evolution of application platforms. I have had the pleasure of spending time with Pete Brumme (co-founder of Silverstream amongst many other credentials). Together, we put together one way to look at the evolution of the Internet:

1993 to 1994 – Put a face out to the market … get a website launched

• Web Browsers / Servers – Mosaic, Netscape
• Authoring – Frontpage, HTML, CGI, Perl
• Production – Allaire (Cold Fusion), Macromedia (Flash), Microsoft (Windows Media), Real (RealMedia)

1995 to 1996 – The Dynamic Web; service different constituents differently; personalization

• Web Browsers / Servers – Netscape / NIS, Microsoft IE / IIS
• Authoring – Frontpage (Microsoft), HTML, CGI, Perl, Dreamwweaver
• Production – Allaire (Cold Fusion), Macromedia (Flash), Microsoft (Windows Media), Real (RealMedia)
• Content Management – Broadvision, Vignette
• Catalog / Portal Applications – ATG, Portal SW
• Personalization – Broadvision, Firefly
• Application Servers – netDynamics, Kiva, Bluestone, Silverstream, Web Logic

1997 to 1998 – Transaction Content; do business via the web

• Web Browsers / Servers – Netscape / NIS, Microsoft IE / IIS, Sun J2EE
• Authoring – Frontpage (Microsoft), HTML, CGI, Perl, Dreamwweaver
• Production – Allaire / Cold Fusion & Flash (Macromedia), Microsoft (Windows Media), Real (RealMedia)
• Content Management – Broadvision, Vignette, Filenet, Hummingbird / PC Docs
• Catalog / Portal Applications – ATG, Portal SW
• Personalization – Broadvision
• Application Servers – ATG, Sun / iPlanet, Kiva (Netscape), Bluestone (HP), Silverstream, Web Logic (BEA), IBM Websphere, Microsoft .NET

1998 to 2000: Not much happened

2000 to 2001 – Multi-device; any device, any time; N-Tier applications running on multiple devices

• Web Browsers / Servers – Netscape / NIS, Microsoft IE / IIS, Sun J2EE
• Authoring – Frontpage (Microsoft), Dreamwweaver
• Production – Allaire (Cold Fusion), Macromedia (Flash), Microsoft (Windows Media), Real (RealMedia)
• Content Management – Broadvision, Vignette, Filenet, Hummingbird / PC Docs
• Catalog / Portal Applications – ATG, Portal SW
• Personalization – Broadvision
• Application Servers – ATG, netDynamics (Sun), Kiva (Netscape), Bluestone, Silverstream, Web Logic (BEA), IBM Websphere

2001 to 2002 – Web services

• Web Browsers / Servers –Microsoft IE / IIS, Sun J2ME / SE / EE
• Authoring – Frontpage (Microsoft), Dreamwweaver
• Production – Macromedia (Flash), Microsoft (Windows Media), Real (RealMedia)
• Content Management – Broadvision, Vignette, Filenet, Hummingbird / PC Docs
• Catalog / Portal Applications – ATG, Portal SW
• Personalization – Broadvision
• Application Servers – ATG, Sun / iPlanet, Kiva (Netscape), Bluestone (HP), Silverstream (Novell), Web Logic (BEA), IBM Websphere, Microsoft .NET
• Web Services – Systinet, Cape Clear, Actional, Amberpoint

Reflecting upon this in hindsight, it is apparent that application platforms have become a necessary staple when deploying any type of rich, interactive web application. Early on, the companies providing the application servers created the applications themselves. Now, any company can create applications based on the application platforms using standard web tools and technologies.

Lens #1

For digital media services, it is useful to make a distinction between publishing and delivery infrastructure.

• Publishing Infrastructure – Maven, Atrium, Entriq, Narrowstep, eXtend Media, Brightcove, the Platform
• Delivery Infrastructure – Akamai, Internap, Limelight, Broadband TV, enSequence, Goldpocket, Cellcast

Companies such as Brightcove and thePlatform provide both publishing and delivery infrastructure.

• Service Infrastructure – Volantis, Netbiscuits, Motricity, Openwave, Qualcomm
• Applicaton Platforms – Mediabricks (Handmark), Qualcomm (uiONE), Nellymoser, Adobe
• Mobile Channel Enablers – SingleTouch, m365 (Sybase), mBlox, m-Qube (Verisign)
• Publishers and Aggregators – Limelife, Glu Mobile, JAMDAT (EA), Twistbox, Hands-On, Groove Mobile, Buongiorno, Real Networks

Companies such as Qualcomm, Nellymoser and Adobe provide both the service infrastructure and application platforms. Similarly, companies such as Orb Networks, MobiTV and Verisign provide both mobile service infrastructure and digital delivery infrastructure.

Thesis:

Operators and content providers (e.g., media companies and publishers) will and should run their business like they run their online businesses. They will continue to have a direct relationship (dialog) with their networked audience and utilize enabling platforms and services. We have seen this move start to take hold in mobile. There is a shift from relying upon indirect relationships with the customers (e.g., via publishers, aggregators and channel enablers) towards utilizing mobile service and application infrastructure and platforms.

Lens #2

Another way to look at this in terms of more specialized “platform” distinctions would be:

• WAP Content Management– Motricity, iLoop, Crisp Wireless, m-Qube (Verisign), Infospace (Motricity), Netbiscuits, Volantis, Verisign
• Rich Media (Audio / Video) Delivery – Real Networks, Quickplay, the Platform, MobiTV
• Billing, Delivery and Messaging Platforms – m-Qube (Verisign), Enpocket, Gold Pocket, m365, mBlox, Netsize, Qpass (Amdocs)
• Tools & Middleware – UI Evolution, Adobe, Qualcomm
• Mobile Services Platform - Nokia, Ericsson, Nellymoser

Thesis:

There will, and already has been, a general consolidation of platforms. For example, the Web / WAP content management, messaging / SMS platforms and even the rich media platforms will become part of a mobile services platform which itself is part of a larger service delivery platform. The network-aware applications and aspects of content delivery platforms will evolve and will likely become part of application platforms. There will continue to be tools and middleware but the paradigm will be driven by the common, standard web tools and technologies and not the current array of proprietary mobile tools used in ODPs, applications and WAP deployments.

Lens #3

A closer set of distinctions made within the mobile content enablement and delivery space looks something like the following (+/- a bunch of names):

• AJAX / Widgets – Bling, Widsets, Mojax, Opera, Mobidgets, Bluepulse
• Community – Intercasting, Gofresh, Upoc, Hands-on, Jumbuck, Perperoni, M7 (Motricity)
• D2C – Thumbplay, Blinko (Buongiorno), Blug Frog (just filed chapter 11), Flycell (Acotel), Zingy (just exited business, reverted back to Vindigo), Modtones (Faith), Playphone, Jamster (Jamba - Verisign, FOX), Ringster, Data, mVisible, Mixxer, QTones
• UGC – Yospace, Fun Mobility, Ontela, Mywaves, Oober, Shozu, AirG, Tribellis
• Video – Quickplay, MobiTV, Nexage, Packet Video, Real Networks, ROK, thePlatform, Transpera
• Music – Omniphone, Groove, Melodeo, Musiwave (Microsoft), mSpot, 3United (Verisign), Ericsson, WiderThan (Real Networks)
• On-Device Portals - Abaxia, MSX (Cellmania), UI Evolution (Square Enix), Action Engine, Refresh Mobile, Adobe, mPortal, Everypoint, u-Turn, inFusio, Streamezzo, Onskreen, Yahoo!
• Homescreens (sub-category of ODPs) – Surf Kitchen, Cibenix, Trigenix (uiONE / Qualcomm), MobiComp. Yahoo! Go, Nokia – CD, Handmark – PE
• Browsers / Mobile Internet Enablement – Opera, Novarra, InfoGin, Access Netfront, Openwave
• Advertising – Third Screen, Admob, Adinfuse, Rhythm, Enpocket, Millennial, Quattro, Aditon, Inside, Flytxt, 12snap, Adcell, TXT4, Miva, Aerodon, Greystripe, Sponge, Incentivated, MADS, Ringside, Google
• Content & Service Delivery Platforms – Goldpocket / Motricity, Comverse, Mobilitec (Lucent), Elatta (Qualcomm), UCP Morgan (Qpass / Amdocs), Cellmania, mQube (Verisign), wMode, Nellymoser, Ericsson

Thesis:

The mobile phone shares some key attributes with both PCs and cable / set-top boxes. For a certain class of phones (i.e., that have suitable screen realestate), the browser will be a core feature set along with things like text messaging and voice. We have seen the power of this with the iPhone. This evolution will be disruptive to a number of mobile companies that are currently taking advantage of temporary disparities that exist (and are rapidly disappearing), e.g., mobile advertising companies and browsers / mobile Internet enablement companies. With set-top boxes the user interface (remote control) is much closer to the mobile phone than a mobile phone is to a mouse and keyboard. As such, the uniqueness of the interface and hence the user experience. This will make the mobile phone, along with other core aspects of mobility (localized, personalized, always-on, every-present) more than just a channel.